The issue of Kadir Nelson is a larger one to me. I’ve heard other librarians say the same thing (they expected him to get a Caldecott). It raises the question of whether black authors sometimes get bypassed for the top medals because they seem to be shoo-ins for lesser ones. The possibility of another medal shouldn’t be a factor when the awards have separate committees. But some judges may be subconsciously influenced by it. And I’ve heard librarians express concerns about the issue.